H1
Same-month sunshine is associated with CCI
Not supportedAll country-level Pearson p-values are greater than 0.05.
| Country | Pearson r | Pearson p | Spearman r | Spearman p | H0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | -0.107 | 0.243 | -0.075 | 0.416 | Not rejected |
| Spain | -0.001 | 0.987 | 0.029 | 0.752 | Not rejected |
| Turkey | -0.020 | 0.831 | -0.044 | 0.635 | Not rejected |
| UK | -0.130 | 0.157 | -0.035 | 0.707 | Not rejected |
H2
Previous-month sunshine predicts current-month CCI
Not supportedLag-1 sunshine also fails to reject H0.
| Country | Lag-1 r | p-value | H0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | -0.075 | 0.417 | Not rejected |
| Spain | 0.025 | 0.788 | Not rejected |
| Turkey | 0.053 | 0.567 | Not rejected |
| UK | -0.071 | 0.443 | Not rejected |
H3
Summer and winter CCI means differ
Not supportedSeasonal t-tests are non-significant for all countries.
| Country | Summer CCI | Winter CCI | t-stat | p-value | H0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 99.938 | 100.035 | -0.339 | 0.736 | Not rejected |
| Spain | 100.234 | 100.607 | -0.646 | 0.521 | Not rejected |
| Turkey | 99.902 | 99.899 | 0.005 | 0.996 | Not rejected |
| UK | 99.497 | 99.401 | 0.209 | 0.836 | Not rejected |
H4
Countries with more volatile sunshine have different CCI volatility
Supported, cautiouslyThe four-country variability check is descriptive due to small sample (n=4).
Scientific Interpretation
The absence of simple linear significance does not mean weather is irrelevant. It means the relationship is likely indirect, non-linear and confounded with macroeconomic context and seasonality.